The electric vehicle time
We wanted flying cars, instead, we got 140 characters. Such is the complaint of Silicon Valley investor and entrepreneur Peter Thiel part of the so-called PayPal Mafia. Well, we might not have flying cars yet but electric vehicles (EVs) do seem to be becoming part of our day-to-day reality.
For the last couple of years, we have witnessed unprecedented development in the electric car industry. We can say without exaggeration that we are living a revolution. The first modern electric car appeared in 1996 when GM launched the EV1. In October of 1997, Toyota released the Prius, a hybrid passenger vehicle intended to be “the vehicle for the 21st century “. Mass production of the Prius began in the year 2000 amidst great acclaim and acceptance among celebrities.
The revolution gained more pace in 2006 when a small Silicon Valley-based startup announced its intention to begin the production of a luxury electric sports car, you may know this company as Tesla Motors. The announcement of Tesla was a call to action for other vehicle producers. It was towards the end of 2010 that we saw the birth of the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf. The Volt rolled out as the first commercially available plug-in hybrid (PHEV) at the moment of its release, it was the direct competition of the Toyota Prius. On the other hand, the Nissan Leaf is an all-electric vehicle (AEV). Production began in October 2010 and its delivery started in December of that year.
Despite all these advancements I am eager to know when can we expect all of us to be driving electric vehicles. Will the day ever come during my lifetime where it will be odd change to see a combustion engine vehicle, as it is nowadays seeing an electric vehicle?
According to a report made by the IEA, there were roughly 17 000 electric cars in the world in 2010. That number has dramatically increased reaching over 7.2 million EVs in 2019. Wonder which country has the majority of EV? If your first thought was the United States, you would be wrong. According to the same report, the IEA shows it is the Peoples Republic of China that has the majority of EVs in the world with almost 47% of the world’s total. Yes, that’s right China has almost half of the world’s EV fleet and this trend is expected to remain this way for the next couple of decades.
Global electric car stock, 2010-2019. Source: IEA.
It is expected that by 2025 sales of EVs will hit 10% of global passenger vehicle sales this would then rise to 28% in 2030. By 2040 this number is estimated to be 58% of all vehicle sales. Despite this, some countries are bigger than others and China and Europe will dominate the landscape. So by 2040, it’s expected that there will be approximately 500 million EVs that is 31% approximately and for China and Europe, this will be about 50% of their total vehicle fleet.
Global long-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region. Source: BloombergNEF
The future seems bright but the industry still faces major challenges in the coming years, namely, limited driving range, high costs, and battery issues. “The limitations presented by the technology also remains a concern for many customers, with not only range but the time taken to charge an EV when required as well as a still sparse charging infrastructure in some markets,” said Ian Fletcher in an interview with Semiengineering magazine.
So to answer our question, data shows that depending on where you happen to find yourself, you might already have common exposure to EVs or they might still be a strange sight. One thing is for sure the future is electric and it will catch up on us sooner or later.
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